Comments on: Part IV: Lucky You!

By: raptor1313

raptor1313 — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 05:31:13 +0000

Amen. Math-hammer has a role in the game, but it cannot tell you everything you need to know. It’ll give you an idea of what can happen, but as you’ve pointed out, the dice can roll average in an aggregate sense, but not necessarily when you break it down into the (as far as the dice are concerned) arbitrary groups of terrain, shooting, punching, wounding, and saving.

I think a big part of winning involves relying as little as possible on the dice. This is on the player; you have to do as much as you can with tactics/strategy to minimize the impact of the dice.

It’s one of the reasons I’ve cooled a bit on my opinion of the Seer Council. Sure, a bunch of twin-linked heavy flamers and wound-on-2+-in-melee [or S9 vs vehicles] guys are freakin’ brutal. On the other hand, if the other guy brought psychic defenses? There’s a good chance that I’ll lose the game if he can drag down my council by killing Fortune and dropping enough guys first.

That being said, I think Thehod has a good point: bad luck is one thing, but bad luck + opponent exploiting it (..I tend to assume they will, and they USUALLY do…) is worse. If they don’t, then you may or may not have a chance.

I try to play ‘by the numbers’, but I’m fully aware that they don’t always work out the way I’m hoping in such small sample sizes.

By: Thehod

Thehod — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 21:38:46 +0000

I agree with the points above but all the bad luck in the world means nothing if your opponent does not capitalize on your bad luck and can make it unlikely yet possible to overcome bad luck.

By: Greg Sparks

Greg Sparks — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 23:18:29 +0000

A few quotes that I live by in events:

1. Chris Borer (4 x Slayer Sword Winner) – you have to be good enough to put yourself into the position to win and then the rest is the luck of the day.

2. You have to be good to be lucky and lucky to be good.

3. You create your own luck.

In all of these cases – you need to be good enough through skill and tactical decision making to put yourself in the position to carry the day. Luck will then allow or deny you the rest. If you aren’t good enough, then you will prevail only through extreme and highly unlikely measures of luck.

By: Flekkzo

Flekkzo — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 05:17:47 +0000

The calculating gamer reminds me of the poker players who know all the numbers (and gets pissed if you don’t play the “right” way). Both poker and 40k is a game of chance. Part of it is the cards and the dice. But there is more to it. Not all strategies have to be by the numbers. There is something to be said for being unpredictable in ways that gives you and advantage.

So sometimes go do something unexpected and crazy, play the person behind the table too.

I have a tendancy to sometimes play very calculating, and then the next minute make a crazy move hoping for the dice gods to smile on me.

By: Dweomer

Dweomer — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 15:56:03 +0000

I whole heartedly agree with this article. One place I think you touched on but could have said more? Not only does luck apply to the dice rolls in the game, but also to the tournament overall. Yes, there is a certain stratification that occurs and later games are *probably* pitting better players against better players. But luck still plays a part even in what opponents you face.
All too often I’ve seen tournaments, especially 3-rounders, where a moderate skill player ended up taking Best General or Overall. Sometimes they get lucky and pull several mediocre opponents in a row, sometimes two really good players faced in the early rounds and washed each other out, and sometimes they just have a day of really great dice.
I’ve seen people gear to face only a certain type of force and get smashed when they get an oddball or balanced all-comers… or draw that type of force every single game and get Best General.
I’ve seen skilled players take competitive all-comers lists, only to get screwed over by plain bad dice rolls, a lack or excess of terrain, wonky tournament special rules and scoring, or worst of all… bad mission design. I’ve also seen people take mediocre lists and thrive because of the above.

I’ve taken Overall and Best General at Indy GTs and a number of lesser tournaments… and I’ll be the first to say that luck has played a part in every single one.

Thank you for another excellent article. I’ve thought them good enough that they’re becoming part of my “required reading” packet for new players. (All credit given, of course.) Cheers!